Nothing says fun like a hurricane party, a bottle of “Jack,”
and a little game theory debate as lights begin to flicker across New
England. And speaking of “Jack,” what
can possibly explain the handlers at HP letting Leo Apotheker get off the
reservation long enough to proclaim the obvious market shift brought on by the
iPad?
Note to Leo: Never tell the world your
business problems right before you put up the “for sale” sign. Never.
Note to Larry: Please put Leo, the
board and shareholders out of their misery.
Can you imagine?
Ahhhhh. I feel better. Now … turning to the chasm-crossing cloud
market ... I am fascinated by how the
maturing of this market changes the competitive landscape as players reposition
where they’ll compete and investors ask, “Where is the smart money?”
So, with a nod to Geoffrey Moore’s iconic taxonomy, here’s
my cut at a bare-bones outline of Cloud computing’s rise from evolution to revolution.
2006/07 – Innovators: Launch initial offering
Key milestone: Packaging server
virtualization into a solution called “Cloud”
Amazon announced a limited public beta of EC2 on August 25,
2006, just six months after the launch of Twitter. This move is a Cloud Computing equivalent of shipping
the iPad. New idea has been funded, team built, 1.0 product is “good enough.” The race has begun and hardly anyone has
noticed it yet.
2008 – Innovators: Get
proof and “traction”
Key milestone: Amazon (AWS) does
$100M in revenue
Zero to $100M in 2 years is proof enough. Early adopters --
technology enthusiasts -- flock to Amazon AWS and would-be competitors hastily plot
their entry into this new market. The debate begins: what is cloud computing and what are posers
(a.k.a. “cloudwashing”). These questions
consume the blogosphere and keep early twitter users off the streets.
2009 – Early adopters
Part I: Cloud breakthrough defined,
validated, and gaining a foothold
Key milestone: Gartner issues their 1st
cloud computing vendor list
Cloud computing is recognized as a generational epoch on par
with Mainframe, Minis, PC and Web. Amazon
AWS does $250M in revenue. Traditional IT vendors stop asking “What is it?” and
put on their acquisitional hats to answer, “How do I get into the game?”
2010 – Early adopters
Part II: Cloud love fest in full swing
Key milestone: Acquisitions, open source initiatives, and (drum
roll) Microsoft is “all in”
The seriousness of the game is now completely clear to
anyone who is paying attention. Game changing events (time will tell) add fuel
to the cloud computing buzz: CA acquires
3 companies in the space; HP and Dell duke it out for 3Para in a sky’s-the-limit
arms/price race. In July 2010, Rackspace
Hosting and NASA jointly launched a new open source cloud initiative known as
OpenStack and, in March 2010, Steve Ballmer gives a speech declaring: “Microsoft,
for the cloud, we're all in.” Apple
released the first iPad in April 2010, selling 3 million of the devices in 80
days. Amazon AWS does $500M in revenue. The movement is clearly a juggernaut.
2011 – Early
majority: The US government pushes hard to the cloud; enough said
Key milestone: Acquisitions move
up the stack
The year starts out with many transactions around owning a
cloud (“Look ma, I’m just like Amazon too, no hands …”). Terramark, Savvis, and Navisite all get
gobbled up as PC era’s transition to Cloud becomes a done deal. iPad will sell
close to 50 million units this year. Amazon AWS is on track to do $1,000M in
revenue.
Then there is the matter of both Cloud.com and CloudSwitch
going for something like 100 - 150 times trailing twelve month revenue. (If Apple Cloud were to get that kind of valuation
it would be worth 15 trillion dollars -- enough to pay off the entire US debt). These 2 deals are outliers that tell us
something important about what is now required to win. They signal a new game with a higher
ante.
Look at the CloudSwitch Verizon deal, in light of Verizon’s
recent $2B purchase of Terremark. Terremark is one of the most advanced Clouds
available and Verizon just spent another $140M to protect that initial
investment -- and provide a capability that other clouds cannot.
Lessons learned: It is no longer sufficient to have an
advanced Cloud. You need something more in order to compete. You need to be
able to move applications in and out and around all things Cloud.
2012 and beyond: We all agree that Cloud is the next
generational computing epoch. So what will the market do? It has already moved
from the Wild West to early settlement times. Companies are settling down for
the long haul, building stonewalls to stake their claims. As the market shifts,
leaders will look to add capabilities that broaden and differentiate their
solutions (CloudSwitch/Verizon redux).
I expect the next 12 months to show a lot of Cloud related action
in management tools, gateways/connectivity, and Platform as a Service (PaaS). And,
unless the
Mayan calendar turns out to be right, Cloud is likely to dominate the next
decade, throwing some innovative curves along the way.
Note: Now seems like a good
time for the next installment of GregO's cloud valuation exit/acquisition
score-card.
Time Company
Valuation*
Q1
2010 3Tera
/CA
$90M @ 30 EV/R(ttm)
Q2
2010 3Para/HP
$2.4B
@
12 EV/R(ttm)
Q1
2011 Facebook/Private IPO (GS)
$50 B @
25 EV/R(ttm)
Q1
2011
Terremark/Verizon $1.9B @ 5.4
EV/R(ttm)
Q2 2011 Navisite $230M @ 2.1 EV/R(ttm)
Q2 2011 Savvis $2.9B @3.0 EV/R(ttm)
Q3 2011 Cloud.com $218M
@100 EV/R(ttm)
Q3 2011 CloudSwitch $140M @125 EV/R(ttm)
*Valuation –
includes debt
EV –
Enterprise value or market cap + cash + debit
R(ttm) –
Revenue for trailing twelve months
I am always looking for a way to communicate better and cut to the
heart of any discussion. So, if you have thoughts on this subject drop me
a line at GregO {@} Appzero {dot} com or tweet me at http://twitter.com/gregoryjoconnor.